This is the second release of STL’s edge computing revenue forecast
In this release, we update the forecast and include regional edge
The edge computing market continues to invite different types of players including telcos, hyperscalers, data centre operators and enterprise connectivity providers. The varying requirements across verticals, business sizes and use cases create an opportunity that can accommodate all these different players. However, it is important for any edge provider to understand how to position its service in the space and what areas of the market to pursue vertically and horizontally.
Through quantitative analysis, this report aims to help telcos and others to identify where opportunities lie. This report presents the key findings of STL Partners’ demand forecast model for edge computing services. Its purpose is to:
Assess the demand from 20 use cases which currently rely on edge or will require edge to fully develop;
Identify the total revenue across the value chain: device, connectivity, application, edge infrastructure (regional, network and on-premise), and integration and support;
Output a full set of results for over 90 countries over the 2020–2030 period per use case and per vertical.
This report is accompanied by a dashboard which presents a summary of our model output and the associated graphics for the world’s regions and for 20 major markets. The dashboard also presents the full revenue output for the 97 countries.
Edge computing addressable revenue will reach US$445 billion by 2030
High-level findings from the model indicate that:
The total edge computing addressable market will grow from US$9 billion in 2020 to US$445 billion in 2030 at a CAGR of 48% over the 10-year period.
We now forecast regional edge in addition to network and on-prem edge. Regional edge refers to local edge data centres that are outside the telecoms operators’ network. Examples of these include internet exchange data centres, small data centres in Tier 2/3 cities, AWS Local Zones, etc.
The vertical opportunities in on-prem and distributed edge are quite different. Telcos and other providers that are looking into the various types of infrastructure to offer edge services should evaluate these differences and assess their own capabilities and willingness to compete in these verticals.
The growth in the number of connected devices, as well as the need for higher levels of automation, operational efficiency and cost reduction, will drive the adoption of edge computing across many use cases and verticals over the next 10 years. This will result in increased spend across the value chain.
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Total edge computing addressable revenue 2020–2030
This report presents the key findings of STL Partners’ new demand forecast model for edge computing services. Its purpose is to:
Assess the demand from 20 use cases which currently rely on edge or will require edge to fully develop;
Identify the total revenue across the value chain: hardware, connectivity, application, edge infrastructure (network and on-premise), and integration and support;
Output a full set of results for over 180 countries over the 2020–2030 period per use case and per vertical.
This report is accompanied by a dashboard which presents a summary of our model output and the associated graphics for the world’s regions and for 20 major markets. The dashboard also presents the full revenue output for the 180+ countries.
Enter your details below to request an extract of the report
Edge computing addressable revenue will reach US$543 billion by 2030
High-level findings from the model indicate that:
The growth in the number of connected devices, as well as the need for higher levels of automation, operational efficiency and cost reduction, will drive the adoption of edge computing across many use cases and verticals over the next 10 years. This will result in increased spend across the value chain.
The total edge computing addressable market will grow from US$10 billion in 2020 to US$543 billion in 2030 at a CAGR of 49% over the 10-year period.
The total value chain breaks into five main components which are hardware, connectivity, application, integration & support, in addition to the edge infrastructure which includes both on-prem edge and network edge.
Total edge computing addressable revenue
Source: STL Partners
Table of contents
Executive Summary
Methodology
Revenue by value chain component
Revenue by use case
Revenue by vertical
Revenue by region
Appendix
For more information on STL Partners’ edge-related services, please go to our Edge Insights Service page.
Under 1% telecoms revenue growth forecast globally 2019-2022
For fixed and mobile combined, of the ten largest markets, China will grow most at 3.7% pa, and India least at -1.6%.
Regionally, Africa will show the strongest growth (4.8% mobile, 3.6% fixed), while western Europe’s mobile market will shrink most (-1.3%) and the North American fixed market will stay flat at 0% growth.
Telecoms revenue forecasts by region, 2019-2022
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Telecoms revenue forecasts included
Fixed and mobile services revenues
Forecast period: 2019-2022
Eight regional forecasts: Africa, Middle East, Asia & Pacific, Eastern Europe, Latin America & Caribbean, US & Canada, Western Europe
94 individual country forecasts: Algeria, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Cameroon, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Estonia, Ethiopia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kuwait, Latvia, Lithuania, Malawi, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali, Mexico, Moldova, Montenegro, Morocco, Netherlands, Nigeria, North Macedonia, Norway, Oman, Pakistan, Palestinian Territory, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Sweden, Switzerland, Syria, Taiwan, Tanzania, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United States, Uruguay, Venezuela, Zimbabwe.
Methodology
Reported services revenues by companies from 94 countries have been converted to US Dollar figures based on year end exchange rates:
As such, historical growth is affected by foreign exchange movements
Handset and equipment sales are excluded
Forecasts are created from historical trends plus adjustments for known market or economic changes
No foreign exchange fluctuations are factored into forecasts so forward growth rates are ‘smoother’ than historical ones
Regions and global figures are calculated by aggregating country data
At around $1.4 trillion, we estimate this represents 85+% of global telco service revenues and is a good indicator of the overall industry
Report comprises
98 pages
200+ charts
Detailed spreadsheet
Specimen chart of country detail for fixed and mobile services
Finland’s actual and forecast telecoms revenue growth for fixed and mobile servicesScreenshot of STL Partners’ forecast spreadsheet 2019-2022 total telecoms revenues
If you want to talk to us in more detail about any of the numbers in the telecoms revenue forecast, reach us through your account director or please fill out our contact form.
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