Tag: Acquisitions

Regulation: A Good Case for Change (at last)

Introduction

As one of the most regulated sectors of the economy, telecoms services are the product of a complex mix of market forces and a multitude of rules governing everything from prices to the availability of spectrum. Many of these rules date from the days when an incumbent telco, often state-owned, was the dominant player in the market and needed to be carefully scrutinised by regulators. However, some of these rules, such as those governing Net Neutrality, are relatively new and relate to telcos’ role as the gateway to the Internet, which has become so fundamental to modern life. For more on this topic, please see STL Partners’ recent report: Net Neutrality 2021: IoT, NFV and 5G ready?

As telcos’ profitability has come under increasing pressure, they are lobbying hard for greater regulatory freedom. This report outlines and analyses telcos’ various campaigns to improve the business case for infrastructure investment and level the playing field with Internet players, such as Google and Facebook. It also considers whether telcos are actually putting their money where their mouth is. Is the current regulatory and competitive climate actually prompting them to cut back on investment? What will be the impact on 5G?

For their part, governments are increasingly aware of the need to stimulate new investments and new solutions in the digital economy. Greater digitisation could help solve important socio-economic problems. For example, most governments believe that digital technologies can improve the business environment, and support lower-cost, but effective, healthcare, education and security services, that will make their economies function and grow. The EU, for example, is trying to build a Digital Single Market, while the Indian government’s Digital India initiative aims to make all public services available online.

Thus governments need telcos and tech companies to succeed. Given that telcos are typically more national than global in their outlook and organisation, they tend to seem a more natural partner for national governments than the giant Internet players, such as Google and Apple.

In light of these factors, this report explores whether policymakers’ priorities are changing and how regulatory principles and competition policy are evolving. In particular, it considers whether policymakers and regulators are now taking a tougher stance with the major Internet platforms. Finally, the report analyses several areas of uncertainty – arenas in which telcos and others are likely to concentrate their lobbying efforts in future, and gives our high level analysis of areas of potential for telcos – and regulators – to make progress.

 

  • Introducton
  • Executive Summary
  • The regulatory constraints on telcos
  • Telcos’ lobbying efforts
  • More than just talk?
  • Policymakers change their priorities
  • Taking a tougher line with Internet players
  • Conclusions and areas of uncertainty

 

  • Figure 1: EBIT margins for various segments of the digital economy
  • Figure 2: ROCE in various segments of the digital value chain
  • Figure 3: Western Europe isn’t investing enough in telecoms infrastructure
  • Figure 4: Europe’s big five have stepped up capital spending
  • Figure 5: Vodafone & Telecom Italia invest more than 20% of revenues
  • Figure 6: The capital intensity of European telcos has been rising
  • Figure 7: Europe’s large telcos are seeing ROCE fall
  • Figure 8: Europe lags behind on LTE availability
  • Figure 9: In the UK, mobile operators already share infrastructure
  • Figure 10: The EU alleges Google uses Android to unfairly promote its apps
  • Figure 11: The key issues in telecoms regulation & their relative importance
  • Figure 12: The flywheel that can be driven by ROCE-aware regulation

Vertical Innovation Leaders: How Telstra’s Healthcare Jigsaw is Coming Together

Introduction

Over the course of 2013-2015, Australian operator Telstra has invested heavily in acquisitions, tapping into the A$11.2bn (US$8.52bn) it received from the Australian government for access to its legacy copper network required to connect the country’s National Broadband Network. Telstra spent $1.2bn on acquiring digital businesses during 2015  alone.

Telstra’s stated aims were: geographic expansion of its core telecoms offerings, as illustrated by its acquisition of Asian carrier and managed services provider Pacnet for US$697Mn, completed in April 2015; and growing its digital service offerings, as illustrated by its multiple acquisitions in the digital platforms and applications space.

The telco has taken a particularly innovative approach to building its offerings in the healthcare vertical, where its ‘new digital’ investments have focused.

Telstra’s approach to establishing its digital (and non-digital) healthcare business is a good indicator of its future overall digital strategy, at the core of which is a highly customer-centric approach and a commitment to bringing agile and lean business practices to all parts of its own business.

Telstra, is, of course, not an established healthcare brand, either in Australia or elsewhere. As we discuss below, this has created a number of challenges, both in engendering relevance with healthcare customers and in achieving Telstra’s particular aims in the health space. The operator has sought to collaborate with or acquire health service providers in order to overcome these challenges.

Telstra’s overall strategy in regard to its digital health care investments and partnerships has been aggressive and unusual, both in terms of the telco’s rapidity in developing such relationships, and in terms of the relatively large number of eHealth companies which it has invested in or partnered with. Perhaps unsurprisingly, many industry observers have questioned the approach.  Indeed, one could argue that the diversity of the acquisitions and partnerships points to a lack of clear direction, and that the sheer number of these may be difficult for the operator to manage effectively, let alone consolidate into a healthy and growing digital revenue stream.

This report addresses the following:

  • Telstra’s approach to eHealth, and the key drivers for this
  • How the Telstra Health acquisition strategy fits with Telstra’s larger digital strategy
  • Impact and evidence of success thus far
  • Key challenges and lessons learned

The Telstra approach to digital healthcare

The Telstra Health proposition

Telstra has targeted healthcare as the most important focus area for its move into broader digital economy activities, based on the ongoing societal and demographic shifts driving demand for healthcare services and spend on these, and on the high potential for digital technology to be transformative in the sector.

At high level, the primary objective of Telstra’s Health business is to address the central challenges or pain points facing the healthcare industry, and to combine the best features of the services and applications it acquires with the telco’s own core capabilities, to provide relevant digital healthcare solutions. Telstra has identified six healthcare challenge areas its offerings aim to address, shown in Figure 2:

Figure 2: Six Healthcare Pain Points Telstra Health Aims to Address

Source: Telstra Health

Telstra’s business model, its overall strategy in health and its objectives are all centred around using digital technologies to tackle these health pain points. In practical terms, its goal is to bring the advantages of the digital revolution to bear on the specific challenges facing the health industry – and to develop a profitable new revenue stream in the process.

 

  • Executive Summary
  • Introduction
  • The Telstra approach to digital healthcare
  • The Telstra Health proposition
  • The Telstra Health offering: ecosystem and target customer segments
  • Understanding Telstra’s healthcare acquisition strategy
  • Telstra’s eHealth acquisitions and partnerships
  • Other Telcos Have Been Far Less Acquisitive in eHealth
  • How Telstra Health Fits Into Telstra’s Larger Digital Strategy
  • Impact and Evidence of Success
  • Revenue impact – A$1 billion by 2020 for Telstra Health?
  • Impact on share price – a ‘digital bump’?
  • Other measures of success
  • Evaluating Telstra’s Objectives and Challenges for the Health Business
  • Telstra’s external market objectives
  • Telstra’s organisational objectives
  • General eHealth market challenges

 

  • Figure 1: Telstra Health’s key objectives and challenges
  • Figure 2: Six Healthcare Pain Points Telstra Health Aims to Address
  • Figure 3: The Telstra Health ecosystem
  • Figure 4: Telstra Health: Provider Apps Offerings and Target Market Segments
  • Figure 5: Telstra Health: Connected Care and Telehealth Offerings and Target Market Segments
  • Figure 6: Telstra Health: Intelligence (Analytics) Offerings and Target Market Segments
  • Figure 7: Telstra Health’s Spine Health Intelligence Ecosystem
  • Figure 8: Telstra’s digital health acquisitions, 2013-2016
  • Figure 9: Telstra’s digital health direct investments and key partnerships, 2009-2016
  • Figure 10: Selected digital health acquisitions and investments – Telefonica
  • Figure 11: Telstra Group Key Product Revenues: FY 2013-2015 (AUD billion)
  • Figure 12: Telstra Revenue by Business Segment, FY2013-2015 (A$ billions)
  • Figure 13: Telstra Share Price Performance – 2000-2016 (A$)
  • Figure 14: Telstra Health’s key objectives and challenges

Free-T-Mobile: Disruptive Revolution or a Bridge Too Far?

Free’s Bid for T-Mobile USA 

The future of the US market and its 3rd and 4th operators has been a long-running saga. The market, the world’s richest, remains dominated by the duopoly of AT&T and Verizon Wireless. It was long expected that Softbank’s acquisition of Sprint heralded disruption, but in the event, T-Mobile was simply quicker to the punch.

Since the launch of T-Mobile’s “uncarrier” price-war strategy, we have identified signs of a “Free Mobile-like” disruption event, for example, substantial net-adds for the disruptor, falling ARPUs, a shakeout of MVNOs and minor operators, and increased industry-wide subscriber growth. However, other key indicators like a rapid move towards profitability by the disruptor are not yet in evidence, and rather than industry-wide deflation, we observe divergence, with Verizon Wireless increasing its ARPU, revenues, and margins, while AT&T’s are flat, Sprint’s flat to falling, and T-Mobile’s plunging.

This data is summarised in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Revenue and margins in the US. The duopoly is still very much with us

 

Source: STL Partners, company filings

Compare and contrast Figure 2, which shows the fully developed disruption in France. 

 

Figure 2: Fully-developed disruption. Revenue and margins in France

 

Source: STL Partners, company filings

T-Mobile: the state of play in Q2 2014

When reading Figure 1, you should note that T-Mobile’s Q2 2014 accounts contain a negative expense item of $747m, reflecting a spectrum swap with Verizon Wireless, which flatters their margin. Without it, the operating margin would be 2.99%, about a third of Sprint’s. Poor as this is, it is at least positive territory, after a Q1 in which T-Mobile lost money. It is not quite true to say that T-Mobile only made it to profitability thanks to the one-off spectrum deal; excluding it, the carrier would have made $215m in operating income in Q2, a $243m swing from the $28m net loss in Q1. This is explained by a $223m narrowing of T-Mobile’s losses on device sales, as shown in Figure 2, and may explain why the earnings release makes no mention of profits instead of adjusted EBITDA despite it being a positive quarter.

Figure 3: T-Mobile’s return to underlying profitability – caused by moderating its smartphone bonanza somewhat

Source: STL Partners, company filings

T-Mobile management likes to cite its ABPU (Average Billings per User) metric in preference to ARPU, which includes the hire-purchase charges on device sales under its quick-upgrade plans. However, as Figure 3 shows, this is less exciting than it sounds. The T-Mobile management story is that as service prices, and hence ARPU, fall in order to bring in net-adds, payments for device sales “decoupled” from service plans will rise and take up the slack. They are, so far, only just doing so. Given that T-Mobile is losing money on device pricing, this is no surprise.

 

  • Executive Summary
  • Free’s Bid for T-Mobile USA
  • T-Mobile: the state of play in Q2 2014
  • Free-Mobile: the financials
  • Indicators of a successful LBO
  • Free.fr: a modus operandi for disruption
  • Surprise and audacity
  • Simple products
  • The technical edge
  • Obstacles to the Free modus operandi
  • Spectrum
  • Fixed-mobile synergy
  • Regulation
  • Summary
  • Two strategic options
  • Hypothesis one: change the circumstances via a strategic deal with the cablecos
  • Hypothesis two: 80s retro LBO
  • Problems that bite whichever option is taken
  • The other shareholders
  • Free’s management capacity and experience
  • Conclusion

 

  • Figure 1: Revenue and margins in the US. The duopoly is still very much with us
  • Figure 2: Fully-developed disruption. Revenue and margins in France
  • Figure 3: T-Mobile’s return to underlying profitability – caused by moderating its smartphone bonanza somewhat
  • Figure 4: Postpaid ARPU falling steadily, while ABPU just about keeps up
  • Figure 5: T-Mobile’s supposed “decoupling” of devices from service has extended $3.5bn of credit to its customers, rising at $1bn/quarter
  • Figure 6: Free’s valuation of T-Mobile is at the top end of a rising trend
  • Figure 7: Example LBO
  • Figure 8: Free-T-Mobile in the context of notable leveraged buyouts
  • Figure 9: Free Mobile’s progress towards profitability has been even more impressive than its subscriber growth