Telco Cloud Europe update: Open RAN approaching tipping point

Telco Cloud deployments on track for growth again in 2020

Ninth update of the ‘Telco Cloud Tracker’: from ‘NFV’ to ‘telco cloud’

This report accompanies the ninth release of STL Partners’ ‘Telco Cloud Tracker’ database. This contains data on deployments of NFV (Network Functions Virtualisation), SDN (Software Defined Networking) and cloud-native network functions (CNFs) in the networks of the leading telcos worldwide. This analytical report focuses on trends in Europe, set in global context.

For this update and hereafter, we have changed the name of the database from ‘NFV Deployment Tracker’ to ‘Telco Cloud Tracker’. The name change reflects STL Partners’ new focus on ‘Telco Cloud’ as both a research stream and consultancy practice. But the change also corresponds to the fact that the telecoms industry has now embarked on the second phase of its journey towards more integrally software-based networks – the first phase of which went under the banner of ‘NFV’. This journey is not just about a migration towards ‘software in general’, but cloud-native software: based on design principles developed by the cloud industry, which have the potential to bring cloud-scale economics, programmability and automation to connectivity and connectivity-dependent services.

The Tracker database is provided as an interactive Excel tool containing line-by-line analysis of more than 760 individual deployments of NFV, SDN and CNFs, which can be used to drill down on trends by company and region.

We will produce further research and reports on different aspects of cloud-native software and its impact over the coming months.

Growth in 5G core offset by declines in other areas

Telco cloud deployments so far

After a slight drop in the overall number of deployments in 2019, 2020 is set to be a year of modest growth, as is illustrated by the figure below:

Total number of deployments worldwide, 2014 to July 2020

Source: STL Partners

The data for 2020 is split up into completed, ‘pending’ and estimated additional deployments. We have recorded 63 completed deployments between January and July 2020. Pending deployments (totalling 72) are those previously announced that we are expecting to be completed during 2020 but which – to our knowledge – had not yet gone live in the commercial network by the end of July. The estimated additional deployments are derived from extrapolating to the full year 2020 from the total of completed implementations in the first seven months. This results in around 45 further deployments. On this basis, the total for the year as a whole would reach around 180 deployments: just above the previous record year of 2018 (178).

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Table of Contents

  • Executive Summary
  • Introduction: Telco cloud deployments on track for growth again in 2020
    • Ninth update of the ‘Telco Cloud Tracker’: from ‘NFV’ to ‘telco cloud’
    • Scope and content of the Tracker
  • 5G core drives new growth in 2020
    • Deployments are on the rise again
    • Growth has been consistent across almost all regions
    • Europe also on track to maintain its record of year-on-year growth
    • Deployments in Europe are still dominated by the major players, but smaller telcos are catching up
    • Vendors: Ericsson in close second place behind Cisco owing to strong presence in mobile core
  • Open RAN at a TIPping point in Europe
    • European telcos are playing a leading role in open RAN
  • Conclusion: Growth being driven by 5G – with open RAN waiting in the wings
    • Worldwide surge in NSA 5G core deployments
    • NSA 5GC is now nearly the leading VNF overall in Europe
    • … with cloud-native, SA 5GC coming down the pipeline
    • … and waiting in the wings: open RAN
    • These overlapping waves of innovation will make telco cloud mainstream

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NFV goes mainstream: How cloud-native is contributing to growth

This report accompanies the latest update of the NFV Deployment Tracker (June 2020).  It provides an analysis of global tracker findings and covers deployments from 2011 until March 2020.

About the NFV Deployment Tracker

The NFV Deployment Tracker is a regularly-updated database of commercial deployments of Network Functions Virtualisation (NFV) and Software-Defined Networking (SDN) technologies by leading telcos worldwide. It builds on an extensive body of analysis by STL Partners over the past five years on NFV and SDN strategies, technology and market developments.

The Tracker is provided as an interactive Excel tool containing line-by-line analysis of nearly 700 individual deployments of NFV and SDN, which can be used to drill down on trends by company and region.

The NFV Deployment Tracker

Overview of STL Partners NFV Deployment Tracker

Source: STL Partners

Previous reports have focussed on trends in specific regions, in addition to global findings. These include:

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NFV/SDN continues to grow at different speeds in different regions

NFV deployments continue to grow…

In total, our database now contains information on 689 NFV and SDN deployments comprising 1,401 individual functional elements, i.e. an average of just over two components per deployment. As has been the case since we began collecting data, the number of deployments (as defined by STL Partners) continues to grow year on year; although the trend as illustrated below requires some explanation:

Deployment growth continues – despite an apparent slowdown

Source: STL Partners

Pending deployments are those regarding which there is uncertainty surrounding completion.  STL Partners expects some of these will be allocated to 2019 as it discovers that they were completed in that year. 2019 could yet emerge as a growth year, and if not, 2020 looks set to exceed the totals for 2018 and 2019.

…but the rate and drivers of growth vary by region

If we make a more meaningful comparison – between 2019 and the first three months of 2020 (including pending deployments), on the one hand, and 2018, on the other – we see that the number of deployments has continued to grow in each region, apart from North America, where the market is maturing and the pace of new deployment has subsided.

Regional deployment growth, with the exception of North America

Source: STL Partners

Overall, the Asia-Pacific region has accounted for the largest number of deployments across all years: 232 (33.7%) of the total – just ahead of Europe on 226 (32.8%). North America has generated 135 deployments (19.6%), followed by the Middle East with 57, Latin America on 30, and Africa with 15.

Table of contents

  • Executive Summary
  • About the NFV Deployment Tracker
    • Scope
    • Definitions
  • Introduction: NFV/SDN continues to grow – but at different speeds in different regions
    • NFV deployments continue to grow…
    • …but the rate and drivers of growth vary by region
  • In detail: understanding the growth
    • 5G ushers in Phase 2 NFV in developed markets…
    • …while Phase 1 core virtualisation spreads to other markets
    • SD-WAN also goes global
    • SDN was a critical component in longhaul network upgrades
    • vRAN and open RAN enter the stage
    • A second wave of telco cloud deployments is also underway
    • NFV MANO deployments were geared to supporting multi-vendor VNFs over telco clouds
  • In detail: deployments by operator
    • Vodafone, & Telefónica: telco cloud builders innovate at the core and edge
    • China, Japan (& Finland): leading cloud-native deployment
    • AT&T & Verizon: virtualisation programmes near completion
  • In detail: deployments by vendor
    • Cisco & Nokia: generalists leading overall and in 2019/20 respectively, boosted by 5G cores
    • VMware: thriving on telco cloud and SD-WAN
    • Ericsson: leading on 5G cores
    • Huawei: real position is unclear
  • Conclusion: NFV’s first phase has delivered, but tougher challenges lie ahead
    • NFV has become a more and more integral part of telcos’ service portfolios and infrastructure
    • NFV has proven its worth in addressing the challenges of today…
    • … while cloud-native NFV is also getting underway, and may help address the challenges of tomorrow
    • Phase 2 NFV: innovating our way out of the crisis
    • What next?
  • Appendix: Glossary of terms

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NFV Deployment Tracker: Asia-Pacific points to the future of NFV

About the NFV Deployment Tracker

The NFV Deployment Tracker is a quarterly-updated database of commercial deployments of Network Functions Virtualisation (NFV) and Software-Defined Networking (SDN) technologies by leading telcos worldwide. It builds on an extensive body of analysis by STL Partners over the past four years on NFV and SDN strategies, technology and market developments.

The Tracker is provided as an interactive Excel tool containing line-by-line analysis of nearly 600 individual deployments of NFV and SDN, which can be used to drill down on trends by company and region.

Figure 1: The NFV Deployment Tracker

Overview of STL Partners NFV Deployment Tracker

Source: STL Partners

Each new release of the Tracker is global, but is accompanied by an analytical report which focusses on trends in a given region. Previous analysis includes:

This report accompanies the seventh update of the NFV Deployment Tracker, providing an overview of global trends, and a deep-dive on what’s happening in the Asia-Pacific region.

Scope and definitions

The NFV Deployment Tracker covers verified, live deployments of NFV and SDN in commercial telco networks. We do not include proofs of concept, commercial trials or mere agreements to deploy, unless these eventually result in a full commercial deployment.

The data derives mainly from public-domain sources, such as press releases by operators and vendors, or reputable industry media. We also include undisclosed deployments that the operators concerned have informed us about on a confidential basis. These are subsumed within the aggregate data sets analysed in this report but are not itemised in the detailed information contained in the Excel spreadsheet.

We include only telecoms operators, and not other types of company that rely on communications infrastructure and services to deliver their own services (such as cloud providers, internet exchange and hub operators, vendors, systems integrators, etc.).

The telcos included are mainly Tier One providers: those that rely on their own national and international, end-to-end facilities to deliver B2C or B2B services. However, we also include information on incumbent or dominant operators for smaller countries – which are not big enough to be defined as Tier One – as well as particularly innovative deployments by smaller or start-up players in significant markets.

Data in this report covers deployments from 2011 until August 2019.

Global context: NFV is definitely not dead

Global NFV deployments still growing; Asia-Pacific in the lead

We have gathered data on 572 live, commercial deployments of NFV and SDN technology worldwide between January and August 2019. These deployments include 1,161 VNFs, software sub-components and infrastructure elements for which information is available. Overall, the volume of new deployments worldwide has increased every year since 2011.

Figure 2: NFV deployments are picking up speed

NFV deployments by region and year 2011-2019

Source: STL Partners NFV Deployment Tracker

The total of 132 deployments for 2019 in the above chart includes both completed and pending implementations (we define pending as ongoing deployments that have not yet been verified as completed, but which we expect to be concluded in 2019). In addition, the 2019 total shown here runs only up to the end of August 2019; so we are confident that the full-year total for 2019 will exceed the 147 deployments recorded in 2018.

In fact, the number of deployments in Europe and the Middle East in 2019 to date has already exceeded the total for each of these regions for 2018 as a whole. In Asia-Pacific, the volume for the first eight months of 2019 (38) is already around 80% of the 2018 total (49) – meaning that the region is likely to show growth overall by the end of 2019. It must be noted that, by contrast, deployments in North America have declined significantly.

When measured purely in terms of deployments, Europe led the world for the first time in the first eight months of this year. However, in the previous three years – and overall – the Asia-Pacific region has deployed more than any other. We have gathered data on 203 live, commercial deployments of NFV and SDN technology in the Asia-Pacific region between January 2012 and August 2019 – 35.5% of the global total. This means that Asia-Pacific is the largest market for NFV and SDN.

Figure 3: Asia-Pacific leads in total NFV deployments worldwide

Asia-Pacific leads in global NFV deploymentsSource: STL Partners

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • About the NFV Deployment Tracker
  • Scope and definitions
  • Global context
    • Global NFV deployments still growing; Asia-Pacific in the lead
    • Growth in 2019 driven by virtualised 5G mobile cores
    • Mobile core virtualisation is the dominant driver of NFV overall
    • SDN retains its dominant role in Asia-Pacific
    • Vendors of mobile network cores performing strongly
  • Asia-Pacific in focus: leading on innovatio
  • More Asia-Pacific operators are embracing NFV and SDN
  • Pushing the boundaries of mobile core architecture
  • Winning the race to operationalise the 5G standalone core
  • Innovating on SDN-based, on-demand networking services
  • Ambition to innovate for economic and social development
  • Conclusion: Asia-Pacific both leads on past deployments and points the way ahead
    • Asia-Pacific leads the NFV/SDN market in two main ways
    • The region also points the way ahead for the industry
  • Appendix: Glossary of terms

NFV Deployment Tracker: North American data and trends

Introduction

NFV in North America – how is virtualisation moving forward in telcos against global benchmarks?

Welcome to the sixth edition of the ‘NFV Deployment Tracker’

This report is the sixth analytical report in the NFV Deployment Tracker series and is intended as an accompaniment to the updated Tracker Excel spreadsheet.

This extended update covers seven months of deployments worldwide, from October 2018 to April 2019. The update also includes an improved spreadsheet format: a more user-friendly, clearer lay-out and a regional toggle in the ‘Aggregate data by region’ worksheet, which provides much quicker access to the data on each region separately.

The present analytical report provides an update on deployments and trends in the North American market (US, Canada and the Caribbean) since the last report focusing on that region (December 2017).

Scope, definitions and importance of the data

We include in the Tracker only verified, live deployments of NFV or SDN technology powering commercial services. The information is taken mainly from public-domain sources, such as press releases by operators or vendors, or reports in reputable trade media. However, a small portion of the data also derives from confidential conversations we have had with telcos. In these instances, the deployments are included in the aggregate, anonymised worksheets in the spreadsheet, but not in the detailed dataset listing deployments by operator and geography, and by vendor where known.

Our definition of a ‘deployment’, including how we break deployments down into their component parts, is provided in the ‘Explanatory notes’ worksheet, in the accompanying Excel document.

NFV in North America in global context

We have gathered data on 120 live, commercial deployments of NFV and SDN in North America between 2011 and April 2019. These were completed by 33 mainly Tier-One telcos and telco group subsidiaries: 24 based in the US, four in Canada, one Caribbean, three European (Colt, T-Mobile and Vodafone), and one Latin American (América Móvil). The data includes information on 217 known Virtual Network Functions (VNFs), functional sub-components and supporting infrastructure elements that have formed part of these deployments.

This makes North America the third-largest NFV/SDN market worldwide, as is illustrated by the comparison with other regions in the chart below.

Total NFV/SDN deployments by region, 2011 to April 2019

total NFV deployments by region North America Africa Asia-Pacific Europe Middle East

Source: STL Partners

Deployments of NFV in North America account for around 24% of the global total of 486 live deployments (or 492 deployments counting deployments spanning multiple regions as one deployment for each region). Europe is very marginally ahead on 163 deployments versus 161 for Asia-Pacific: both equating to around 33% of the total.

The NFV North America Deployment Tracker contains the following data, to May 2019:

  • Global aggregate data
  • Deployments by primary purpose
  • Leading VNFs and functional components
  • Leading operators
  • Leading vendors
  • Leading vendors by primary purpose
  • Above data points broken down by region
  • North America
  • Asia-Pacific
  • Europe
  • Latin America
  • Middle East
  • Africa
  • Detailed dataset on individual deployments

 

Contents of the accompanying analytical report:

  • Executive Summary
  • Introduction
  • Welcome to the sixth edition of the ‘NFV Deployment Tracker’
  • Scope, definitions and importance of the data
  • Analysis of NFV in North America
  • The North American market in global context
  • SD-WAN and core network functions are the leading categories
  • 5G is driving core network virtualisation
  • Vendor trends: Open source and operator self-builds outpace vendors
  • Operator trends: Verizon and AT&T are the clear leaders
  • Conclusion: Slow-down in enterprise platform deployments while 5G provides new impetus

Telco edge computing: Turning vision into practice

The emerging opportunity for edge compute

There is ongoing interest in the telecoms industry about edge computing. The key rationale behind this is that telcos – through their distributed network assets – are in a unique position to push workloads closer to devices, reducing latency and/or data volumes over to the cloud, and thereby enabling new experiences and use cases, while enhancing existing ones.

After years of centralising workloads in the public cloud there is complementary demand emerging for more distributed compute. This is good news for telcos as it shows that the time is ripe for them to turn their ambition to edge computing. Telcos can exploit their own connectivity, unique network APIs and an existing distributed real-estate. Telcos are in a unique position to play a strong role in distributed and edge computing ecosystems.

Telcos’ excitement around edge is fuelled by new differentiation and revenue opportunities leveraging the dynamic application developer ecosystem which hitherto has been dominated by ever more sophisticated and technically advanced public clouds and proofs-of-concept (POCs). Furthermore, underlying trends in cloud computing are increasingly promising for distributed (edge) computing:

  • Hybrid and multi-cloud models and technologies will continue to facilitate more distributed compute scenarios beyond hyperscale-only and on-premise-only.
  • Lightweight compute models will enable the deployment of cloud-workloads on a smaller footprint (e.g. train AI models in the cloud and execute them at the edge, such as in a smartphone or a connected car). For example, containers and “serverless” compute models make it possible to run workloads more efficiently and elastically than virtual machines.
  • The adoption of more platform-agnostic deployment models (such as containers) will facilitate the shifting and moving of workloads within distributed and edge cloud environments.
  • Proliferation of edge gateways and IoT devices will drive processing and analytics outside the datacentre and closer to the customer (premises).
  • Regarding security, a more distributed computing model is well-suited to defending against certain types of attacks (e.g. DDOS). Furthermore, if/when breaches do occur, these can be quarantined to an edge “cloudlet”, limiting the potential damage and undermining the economics of an attack.

Our findings in this report are informed by a research programme STL Partners has conducted since January 2018, supported by and in cooperation with Aricent. For this research, STL Partners has conducted interviews with both telcos and technology companies, globally about their views and current efforts related to edge computing. Overall, the research forms part of STL Partners’ ongoing research work and consulting assignments around telco edge cloud.

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Key questions arising for telcos

Notwithstanding the strategic opportunity, telcos face some big questions in formulating edge initiatives. These include:

“What is the business case for telco edge – where is the money?”

“Will massive demand for low-latency compute drive demand from core/central to edge compute?”

“How can we compete with the big cloud players – won’t they expand and control the edge too?”

“How should we play in Enterprise edge – should we offer edge services on customer premises?”

“How can we architect and charge for different edge services – those requiring expensive, specialised hardware for accelerated computing to process machine learning/AI workloads?”

“What edge services should we offer and through what distribution channels?”

These are (real examples of) questions that telcos must address in defining and delivering edge services. This report provides a framework to tackle these (and other) questions in a structured way. We will revisit these questions (and the answers) throughout the report.

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NFV Deployment Tracker: Asia takes the lead

Introduction

Welcome to the second update of the ‘NFV Deployment Tracker’

This report is the third analytical report in the ‘NFV Deployment Tracker’ series and is intended as an accompaniment to the second update of the Tracker Excel spreadsheet (dated March 2018).

The update provides a comprehensive set of data on live, commercial deployments of NFV and SDN in the Asia-Pacific market. Under ‘Asia-Pacific’, we include all of the countries of Central, Southern and South-East Asia, along with Oceania. In addition to the new set of data for Asia-Pacific, the spreadsheet contains updated and revised data on deployments in the European and North American regions.

In June 2018, the data set and analysis will be extended to all other regions worldwide, with the aim of providing the industry’s most comprehensive, authoritative source of information on live deployments of NFV and SDN.

Scope, definitions and importance of the data

Detailed explanation of the scope of the information provided in the Tracker, definitions of terms (including how we define a live ‘deployment’ and definitions of frequently used NFV / SDN acronyms) and an account of why we think it is important to track the progress of NFV / SDN are provided in the first analytical report of the series – so we will not repeat them here.

Analysis of the Asia-Pacific data set

Overall data and trends: Asia-Pacific is the largest global market for NFV

We have gathered data on 102 live, commercial deployments of NFV and SDN in Asia-Pacific between 2012 and 2018. These were completed by 33 telcos, including all of the major operators in China, Japan, South Korea and Australia. Deployments have been more limited in India: seven in total, including two global implementations by Tata Communications. Altogether, the data includes information on 203 known Virtual Network Functions (VNFs), functional sub-components and supporting infrastructure elements that have formed part of these deployments.

This means that Asia-Pacific is the largest market for NFV and SDN, measured purely in terms of number of deployments. The Asia-Pacific totals outstrip the updated numbers for both Europe (89 deployments and 182 VNFs / functional components) and North America (62 deployments and 126 VNFs / functional components). The number of operators that have completed deployments is also higher than that in Europe or North America.

Contents:

  • Executive Summary
  • Asia-Pacific is the leading global SDN / NFV market
  • Introduction
  • Welcome to the second update of the ‘NFV Deployment Tracker’
  • Scope, definitions and importance of the data
  • Analysis of the Asia-Pacific data set
  • Overall data and trends: Asia-Pacific is the largest global market for NFV
  • SDN, SD-WAN and core network functions have driven the growth
  • Operator trends: Innovators lead the way, closely followed by the Chinese giants
  • Vendor trends: SD-WAN and vCPE vendors lead the way
  • Conclusion

Figures:

  • Figure 1: Total NFV and SDN deployments in Asia-Pacific, 2012 to 2018
  • Figure 2: Asia-Pacific deployments by higher-level category, 2014 to 2018
  • Figure 3: European deployments by higher-level category, 2014 to 2018
  • Figure 4: North American deployments by higher-level category, 2014 to 2018
  • Figure 5: Leading VNFs and functional components deployed in Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 6: Leading Asia-Pacific operators by number of NFV / SDN deployments
  • Figure 7: Leading vendors by number of deployments