FTTP: Key market, policy and structural trends

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Fibre-to-the-premises is now mainstream, but varies widely across nations in market maturity, industry structure, telco versus altnet roles and government policy. We outline plausible end-state models for FTTP markets.

Description

Format: PDF filePages: 58 pagesAuthor: Dean BubleyPublication Date: July 2024

Table of Contents

  • Executive Summary
    • Recommendations for key stakeholders
  • Introduction
    • Objectives of this report
    • Other background trends
  • Driving uptake of fibre
    • Essential for operators, governments and investors
    • What counts as “uptake”?
    • Does it just take time?
    • Sales and marketing approaches to drive demand
    • Connection capex and reducing friction for final builds
    • Providing FTTP in MDUs is challenging
    • Copper network switch-offs to force FTTP uptake
  • Evolving market structures
    • Current FTTP market structure
    • Key stakeholder groups/network owners
    • Future evolution paths: What is a “steady state” for FTTP?
  • Regulatory and policy developments for fibre
    • The US
    • Other regions
  • Index

Table of Figures

  • Figure 1: Plausible end-state for FTTP markets
  • Figure 2: Financing ongoing fibre build is becoming harder
  • Figure 3: Gigabit broadband subscriptions are starting to grow rapidly
  • Figure 4: European FTTP homes passed and subscriptions, 2012–2023
  • Figure 5: European FTTP residential coverage and take-up rates, % September 2023
  • Figure 6: Marketing approaches for selling FTTP to end users
  • Figure 7: Benefits of FTTP versus alternatives for consumers and operators
  • Figure 8: Additional work needed to go from “homes passed” to connections
  • Figure 9: Extending FTTP access throughout MDUs can be problematic
  • Figure 10: Copper network switch-offs are starting, but will extend into the 2030s
  • Figure 11: Historic evolution paths for broadband market structure
  • Figure 12: Main categories of FTTP network owners
  • Figure 13: US market as an illustration of fibre ownership diversity
  • Figure 14: FTTP strategies for incumbent operators
  • Figure 15: Government control of national and regional FTTP networks
  • Figure 16: High profile of altnets in the European FTTP landscape
  • Figure 17: Wholesale FTTP models have applicability outside developed economies
  • Figure 18: Selected large-scale investor-backed altnets and carve-outs
  • Figure 19: Selected utility and municipality-run FTTP providers
  • Figure 20: Plausible end-state for FTTP markets
  • Figure 21: Potential FTTP overbuild ratios (based on original build intentions)
  • Figure 22: UK FTTP overbuild by region, May 2023
  • Figure 23: Selected FTTP M&A and consolidation deals
  • Figure 24: Key regulatory and policy domains relating to FTTP
  • Figure 25: FTTP deployment in the EU vs. Digital Decade targets
  • Figure 26: US BEAD programme funding mechanism

 

Technologies and industry terms referenced include: 5G, AI, altnets, AT&T, B2B, BEAD, BT, capex, Copper, EU, European Comission, FWA, germany, ISPs, last-mile, MDUs, MNOs, net neutrality, overbuild, partnerships, regulation, UK, US, wholesale, Wholesale access