Case study overview
STL Partners supported a leading telecommunications operator with commercial due diligence (CDD) on a potential acquisition travel eSIM provider. The work provided the client’s investment committee an independent, rigorous answer to three questions: what is the target’s market outlook and potential, what would it take to realise that potential, and what are the key value creation levers post-acquisition.
The engagement combined bottom-up market sizing, a global consumer and SMB survey programme, competitive benchmarking against the full peer set, and an independent review of the target’s financial forecast. STL synthesised the findings into an executive summary and set of commercial strategy recommendations to inform the client’s investment decision.
What was the approach?
STL designed a four-part programme spanning market sizing, competitor analysis, customer insights, financial modelling and strategic recommendations.
1. Market sizing
- STL built bottom-up TAM, SAM and SOM models for both the travel eSIM and virtual number markets, across consumer and SMB segments, and modelled three market share scenarios to 2030 — reflecting status quo, sustained growth and accelerated growth trajectories — tied to different levels of go-to-market investment.
2. Competitor analysis
- STL conducted desk-based benchmarking of the target’s travel eSIM proposition against the full competitor set, and equivalent benchmarking of its virtual number proposition against its direct peer set, across a comprehensive set of commercial and product criteria, to assess the target’s relative differentiation and positioning in both markets.
3. Customer insights
- STL ran a two survey programmes covering consumer and SMB users of travel eSIMs, and analysed demand drivers, purchase channels, provider selection criteria and switching/retention behaviour, benchmarked against the target’s existing customer base.
4. Revenue forecasting
- STL independently reviewed the target’s financial forecasts and underlying assumptions, and developed an adjusted revenue forecast grounded in the market, customer and competitive findings, rather than management’s plan alone.
Key results from the project
- Provided client’s investment committee an independent, evidence-based view of the target’s market opportunity, growth trajectory and competitive position, providing a rigorous stress test of management’s plan
- Quantified the scale of incremental investment the target would need to achieve its growth ambition, sharpening the client’s understanding of the true cost of realising the opportunity
- Identified how the acquirer’s own brand, distribution and cost base could accelerate the target’s growth beyond funding alone, surfacing the strategic — not just financial — case for the deal
- Delivered a board-ready executive summary and set of commercial strategy recommendations that directly informed the client’s investment decision-making