The Future Value of Voice and Messaging

Name: The Future Value of Voice and Messaging
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Our new research shows how telcos can slow the decline of voice and messaging revenues and build new communications services to maximise revenues and relevance with both consumer and enterprise customers. It includes detailed forecasts for 9 markets, in which the total decline is forecast between -25% and -46% on a $375bn base between 2012 and 2018, giving telcos an $80bn opportunity to fight for. It also shows impacts and implications for other technology players including vendors and partners, and general lessons for competing with disruptive players in all markets. It looks at the impact of so-called OTT competition, market trends and drivers, bundling strategies, operators developing their own Telco-OTT apps, advanced Enterprise Communications services, and the opportunities to exploit new standards such as RCS, WebRTC and VoLTE. (November 2013, Executive Briefing Service). Future Value of Voice and Messaging Cover Small

Description

Format: PDF filePages: 261 pagesCharts: 163Author: Andrew CollinsonPublication Date: November 2013

Executive Summary. (18 pages outlining the opportunity and key strategic options)
Disruption and transformation, voice vs. telephony, and scope.
The Transition in User Behaviour. Global psychological, social, pricing and segment drivers, and the changing needs of consumer and enterprise markets.
What now makes a winning Value Proposition? The fall of telephony, the value of time vs telephony, presence, Online Service Provider (OSP) competition, operators’ responses, free telco offerings, re-imaging customer service, voice developers, the changing telephony business model.
Market Trends and other Forecast Drivers. Model and forecast methodology and assumptions, general observations and drivers, ‘Peak Telephony/SMS’, fragmentation, macro-economic issues, competitive and regulatory pressures, handset subsidies.
Country-by-Country Analysis. Overview of national markets. Forecast and analysis of: UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Taiwan, Singapore, Canada, US, other markets, summary and conclusions.
Technology: Products and Vendors’ Approaches. Unified Comminications. Microsoft Office 365, Skype, Cisco, Google, WebRTC, Rich Communications Service (RCS), Broadsoft, Twilio, Tropo, Voxeo, Hypervoice, Calltrunk, Operator voice and messaging services, summary and conclusions.
Telco Case Studies. Vodafone 360, One Net and RED, Telefonica Digital, Tu Me, Tu Go, Bluvia and AT&T.
Summary and Conclusions. Consumer, enterprise, technology and Telco OTT.

Table of Figures

Figure 1: Voice and Messaging revenue scenarios
Figure 2: Mobile Text – Price Vs. Usage
Figure 3: Spain SMS volume vs. average price
Figure 4: SMS Price vs. penetration of Top OSP Messaging Apps
Figure 5: Mobile Voice – Pricing Vs. Usage
Figure 6: EU 5 Pessimistic Forecast
Figure 7: EU5 Optimistic Forecast
Figure 8: Wi-Fi vs. cellular originated traffic – Android smartphones
Figure 9: UK SMS volume vs. average price/msg
Figure 10: USA vs. Average
Figure 11: Germany – High Wealth & Low Telephony
Figure 12: Big prices = Small talk
Figure 13: Distribution of Android smartphone originated traffic across cellular and WiFi networks by country
Figure 14: Psychological and social advantages of voice, SMS, IM, and Social Media
Figure 15: Ideal Enterprise mobile call routing scenario
Figure 16: Mobile Clients used to bypass high mobile call charges
Figure 17: Call Screening Options
Figure 18: Mobile device user context and data source
Figure 19: Typical business user modalities
Figure 20: OSPs are pursuing platform strategies
Figure 21: Subscriber growth of KakaoTalk
Figure 22: Average monthly minutes of use by market
Figure 23: Key features of Voice and Messaging platforms
Figure 24: Average user screen time Facebook vs. WhatsApp (per month)
Figure 25: Disruptive price competition also comes from operators
Figure 26: The hunger gap in music
Figure 27: North America outdoes Western Europe
Figure 28: Mobile voice price Vs. Usage
Figure 29: Taiwan key indicators vs. Market average
Figure 30: Vodafone revenue highlights market issues
Figure 31: Vodafone UK Revenue Q4 11/12 vs Q4 12/13
Figure 32: Vodafone Italy revenue Q4 11/12 vs Q4 12/13
Figure 33: Bloodbath in Europe
Figure 34: Vodafone’s success with data barely compensates for messaging, let alone voice
Figure 35: Increase in International Phone & Skype Traffic 2005-2012
Figure 36: How accurate is STL Partners forecast for the global telecoms Industry in 2020
Figure 37: Spain SMS volume vs. average price per message
Figure 38: Average user screen time by market – WhatsApp (per month)
Figure 39: Vodafone is aggressively moving users to bundled (“integrated”) plans
Figure 40: Annual Mobile call minutes per subscription
Figure 41: Average per-user SMS volume trends (msgs per year)
Figure 42: Average per-user telephony trends (mins per year)
Figure 43: Effective overall price/min mobile telephony, US cents
Figure 44: Telephony price/usage elasticity
Figure 45 – Spain and France telephony usage vs price
Figure 46: Fixed lines / person vs. Mobile Penetration
Figure 47: GDP / Person Vs. Smartphone %
Figure 48: The UK has higher smartphone penetration, and lower post-pay than average
Figure 49: UK – Personal wealth and Telecoms Spend
Figure 50: UK – % Fixed Lines / Person Vs. % Smartphone
Figure 51: UK Key Indicators – Mobile use
Figure 52: UK Key Indicators – Mobile price comparisons
Figure 53: Base forecast for total UK market
Figure 54: UK Fixed Voice Historic + Forecast
Figure 55: UK Mobile Voice Historic + Forecast
Figure 56: UK Messaging Historic + Forecast
Figure 57: Germany has relatively low telephony indicators despite average personal wealth
Figure 58: German Key Indicators – Mobile use
Figure 59: German Key Indicators – Mobile price comparison
Figure 60: Germany: Personal wealth and Telecoms Spend
Figure 61: Germany: % Fixed Lines / Person Vs. % Smartphone
Figure 62: German fixed telephony volume still larger than mobile
Figure 63: German mobile revenues dropping in recent quarters
Figure 64: Base forecast for total German market
Figure 65: Germany Fixed Voice Historic + Forecast
Figure 66: Germany Mobile Voice Historic + Forecast
Figure 67: Germany Messaging Historic + Forecast
Figure 68: France has a higher fixed line penetration but lower spend / line than average
Figure 69: France: Personal wealth and Telecoms Spend
Figure 70: France: % Fixed Lines / Person Vs. % Smartphone
Figure 71: France Key Indicators – Mobile use
Figure 72: France Key Indicators – Mobile price comparison
Figure 73: Orange France losing out to Free
Figure 74: Base forecast for total French market
Figure 75: France Fixed Voice Historic + Forecast
Figure 76: French mobile telephony volumes are still rising
Figure 77: France Mobile Voice Historic + Forecast
Figure 78: French SMS volumes still growing strongly
Figure 79: France Messaging Historic + Forecast
Figure 80: Italy has lower than average personal wealth and low telephony indicators to match
Figure 81: Italy: Personal wealth and Telecoms Spend
Figure 82: Italy: % Fixed Lines / Person Vs. % Smartphone
Figure 83: Italy Key Indicators – Mobile Spending
Figure 84: Italian Key Indicators – Mobile price comparison
Figure 85: Vodafone Italy: painful revenue declines
Figure 86: Base forecast for total Italian market
Figure 87: Italy Fixed Voice Historic + Mobile
Figure 88: Italy Mobile Voice Historic + Forecast
Figure 89: Italy Messaging Historic + Forecast
Figure 90: Despite a weaker economy, Spain’s mobile indicators are close to average
Figure 91: Spain: Personal wealth and Telecoms Spend
Figure 92: Spain: % Fixed Lines / Person Vs. % Smartphone
Figure 93- Spain Key Indicators – Mobile use
Figure 94: Spain Key Indicators – Mobile price comparison
Figure 95: Smartphone traffic distribution: originated data
Figure 96: Vodafone Spain results are painful
Figure 97: Base forecast for total Spanish market
Figure 98: Spain Fixed Voice Historic + Forecast
Figure 99: Spain Mobile Voice Historic + Forecast
Figure 100: Spain Messaging Historic + Forecast
Figure 101: Taiwan has very high telephony spend in relation to personal wealth,
especially in mobile
Figure 102: Taiwan: Personal Wealth and Telecoms Spend
Figure 103: Taiwanese % Fixed Lines / Person Vs. % Smartphone
Figure 104: Taiwan Key Indicators – Mobile use
Figure 105: Taiwan Key Indicators – Mobile price comparison
Figure 106: Mobile voice volume has overtaken fixed since 2007
Figure 107: Base forecast for total Taiwanese market
Figure 108: Taiwan Fixed Voice Historic + Forecast
Figure 109: Taiwan Mobile Voice Historic + Forecast
Figure 110: Taiwan Messaging Historic + Forecast
Figure 111: Singapore is wealthy and has a high smartphone penetration
Figure 112: Singapore Personal wealth and Telecoms Spend
Figure 113: Singapore % Fixed Lines / Person Vs. % Smartphone
Figure 114: Singapore Key Indicators – Mobile use
Figure 115 Singapore Key Indicators – Mobile price comparison
Figure 116: Base forecast for total Singaporean market
Figure 117: Singapore Fixed Voice Historic + Forecast
Figure 118: Singapore Mobile Voice Historic + Forecast
Figure 119: Singapore Messaging Historic + Forecast
Figure 120: Average Mobile Voice c
harges by market (cost per minute)
Figure 121: Canada is wealthy and has high fixed line and post-paid mobile
penetration
Figure 122: Canadian Personal Wealth and Telecoms Spend
Figure 123: Canadian % Fixed Lines / Person Vs. % Smartphone
Figure 124: Canada Key Indicators – Mobile use
Figure 125: Canada Key Indicators – Mobile price comparison
Figure 126: Base forecast for total Canadian market
Figure 127: Canada Fixed Voice Historic + Forecast
Figure 128: Canada Mobile Voice Historic + Forecast
Figure 129: Canada Messaging Historic + Forecast
Figure 130: The US is wealthy and has high overall telephony and fixed line spend per
person
Figure 131: US: Personal Wealth and Telecoms Spend
Figure 132: US: % Fixed Lines / Person Vs % Smartphone
Figure 133: US Key Indicators – Mobile use
Figure 134: US Key Indicators – Mobile price comparison
Figure 135: Base forecast for total US market
Figure 136: USA Fixed Voice Historic + Forecast
Figure 137: Wireless services spending by category in the USA
Figure 138: USA Mobile Voice Historic + Forecast
Figure 139: USA Messaging Historic + Forecast
Figure 140: Closing the voice-focused iDEN system drove churn on Sprint’s mainline
network
Figure 141: Finland Telephony & Messaging Statistics
Figure 142: Vodafone Voice and Messaging by Market
Figure 143: Overall telephony & SMS revenue forecasts, US$bn, baseline scenario
Figure 144: Basic user needs from Unified Communications
Figure 145: Microsoft Lync 2013 client
Figure 146: Microsoft Lync telephony integration options
Figure 147: International Telephone and Skype Traffic 2005-2012
Figure 148: The Skype effect on international traffic
Figure 149: Voice call charging in USA
Figure 150: Google Voice call charging in USA
Figure 151: Google Voice call charging in Europe
Figure 152: Google outbound call rates
Figure 153: Calliflower beta support for WebRTC
Figure 154: Active individual user base for WebRTC, millions
Figure 155: Battery life compared for different services
Figure 156: Vodafone One Net Express call routing
Figure 157: Vodafone One Net Business Call routing
Figure 158: Enterprise is a significant part of Vodafone group revenue
Figure 159: Vodafone Red Bundles
Figure 160: Telefonica: Market Positioning Map, Q4 2012
Figure 161: US market in transition towards greater competition
Figure 162: Voice ARPU at AT&T, fixed and mobile
Figure 163 – Industry Value is Concentrated at the Interfaces

Technologies and industry terms referenced include: 2, APIs, AT&T, Best practice, Broadsoft, business, calls, Calltrunk, CEBP, cisco, Communications Enabled Business Processes, digital, economics, Enterprise Communications Services, facebook, forecasts, future, google, Hypervoice, Innovation, Insights, kakaotalk, LINE, Messaging, microsoft, minutes, mobile, model, Networks, Office 365, One Net, Online Service Providers, OSPS, OTT, Over The Top, Players, rcs, RED, Rich Communications Service, Skype, Strategic Position, Strategy, Telco, Telco OTT, Telecoms, Telefonica, texts, tropo, Tu Go, Tu Me, twilio, Twitter, unified communications, Value, Vodafone, Voice, VoIP, VoLTE, Voxeo, WebRTC, WhatsApp

The Future Value of Voice and Messaging

Description

Table of Contents

Table of Figures

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The Future Value of Voice and Messaging

Description

Table of Contents

Table of Figures

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