Cloud 2020: Telcos’ Role, Scenarios and Forecast

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Although the shape of the cloud industry turned out better than expected, most telco strategies in the cloud haven’t delivered. We investigate why, what has led to success, and what telcos need to learn to do differently.


Format: PDF filePages: 27 pagesCharts: 13Author: Alexander HarrowellPublication Date: July 2016

Table of Contents

  • Executive Summary
  • Introduction: The Cloud in 2016
  • STL’s cloud scenarios from 2012, revisited
  • How much are we talking here?
  • Competitive Developments in Cloud Services, 2012-2016
  • Understanding the strategies of the non-telco cloud players
  • Most Telcos’ Cloud Initiatives Haven’t Worked
  • The Dash-for-Scale failed (because it wasn’t ‘hyperscale’)
  • Only the disruptors made any money
  • Too little investment in cloud innovation resources, and too much belief in marketing reach as a differentiator
  • Cloud innovation is demanding: the case of AT&T
  • Cloud 2.0 Scenarios 2016-2020
  • Scenario 1: Cumulonimbus – tech and Internet players’ global cloud oligopoly
  • Scenario 2: Cirro-cumulus – a core of big cloud players, plus specialists and DIY enterprises
  • Scenario 3: Disruptive 5G lightning storm fuses the Cloud with the Network
  • Conclusion

Table of Figure

  • Figure 1: 2016 Forecasts of cloud market size through 2020
  • Figure 2: Forecasting the adoption of cloud
  • Figure 3: Our revised cloud services spending forecast: still a near-trillion dollar opportunity, even though IT spending slows
  • Figure 4: Our forecast in context
  • Figure 5: Public IaaS leads the way, with AWS and Microsoft
  • Figure 6: IaaS is forecast to grow as a share of the total Cloud opportunity
  • Figure 7: All the profit at Amazon is in AWS
  • Figure 8: Moore’s law runs ahead of AWS pricing, and Amazon grows margins
  • Figure 9: Cloud is the new driver of growth at Microsoft
  • Figure 10: Google is still the fourth company in the cloud
  • Figure 11: AT&T’s cloud line-item is pulling further and further ahead of Verizon’s
  • Figure 12: STL world cloud spending forecast (recap)
  • Figure 13: Driver/indicator/barrier matrix for Cloud 2.0 scenarios

Technologies and industry terms referenced include: 5G, Cloud, data centres, Disruption, forecasts, Innovation, Strategy, Technology