Beating the crash: What’s coming?

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There are troubling signals in the business environment. Consumer confidence is at an all-time low due to inflation, conflict, Covid and climate change. What are the consequences for telecoms, and what should telcos, vendors, policymakers and others in the ecosystem do? In the first of two reports we examine the macro forces and outline three key steps to reshape priorities and the strategy agenda.

Description

Format: PDF filePages: 73 pagesCharts: 36Author: Andrew CollinsonPublication Date: August 2022

Table of Contents

  • Executive Summary
    • Not one crash, but many
    • 1. Actively realigning with stakeholders
    • 2. Accelerating operational innovation
    • 3. Enhancing resilience and customer security offerings
    • Next steps
  • Introduction: Signs of tougher times
    • A scale of discovery
  • Economic drivers: A crisis of confidence
    • Consumer confidence: An all-time low
    • Inflation is worrying everyone in summer 2022
    • Interest rates: A blunt tool?
    • Stock markets: Not quite sure…yet
    • Moving out of denial on economic problems
    • Consequences in telecoms demand
    • Recommendations
  • Environmental factors: Heating up fast
    • Climate change: Denial is hard these days
    • Decarbonisation: Digitising the industrial landscape, fast
    • Environmental concerns are now mainstream
    • Consequences for telecoms
    • Recommendations
  • Political: Drawing new lines
    • Ideo-conflict: Who’s side are you on?
    • The war in Ukraine: The first Coordination Age war?
    • China and Taiwan: Watching, waiting, wondering
    • Trade wars and barriers in general
    • Global instability: More trouble ahead
    • Consequences for telecoms
    • Recommendations
  • Social: A new order
    • Covid and Long Covid: Living with the virus
    • Rising resentment of inequalities
    • The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals
    • Consequences and recommendations for telecoms
  • Analysis
    • Getting the news in context
  • Appendix 1: Waste, pollution and air quality
    • Waste and pollution: Cleaning up
    • Refugees and migrations: Seeking solace in troubling times
  • Appendix 2: The 17 Sustainable Development Goals

Table of Figures

  • Figure 1: The evolution of major macro trends impacting the market
  • Figure 2: Making the Coordination Age work
  • Figure 3: Six stages of dealing with new ideas
  • Figure 4: The OECD Consumer confidence index is at its lowest ever level
  • Figure 5: Inflation overtook other global concerns in April 2022
  • Figure 6: Google searches for “inflation” spiked in July 2022
  • Figure 7: Inflation is a global challenge in 2022
  • Figure 8: US Interest rates 2014-2022
  • Figure 9: OECD European interest rate forecasts
  • Figure 10: Telco and tech stock indicators
  • Figure 11: 2022 inflation / cost-of-living pressures are at the qualification stage
  • Figure 12: It’s unlikely to be a surprise that energy costs are rising
  • Figure 13: US Bureau of Labour Statistics reports 1.3% quarterly wage increase
  • Figure 14: US semi-conductor prices are relatively stable although supply is constrained
  • Figure 15: NASA Global heat maps 2001 vs 2021 show climate change progressing
  • Figure 16: Global greenhouse gas emissions by sector
  • Figure 17: UK’s indicative carbon reduction delivery pathway to 2037 by sector
  • Figure 18: Composition of scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions for telecoms
  • Figure 19: Climate change, the “elephant in the room” is finally getting noticed
  • Figure 20: UN Projections of global population to 2100
  • Figure 21: “My Russia. Young. Dangerous. Beautiful”
  • Figure 22: GIS ARTA: Ukraine’s Coordination Age “Uber for Artillery”
  • Figure 23: The Fujian – China’s first home-built aircraft carrier
  • Figure 24: Updating STL’s Global Post-Covid Collaboration Scenario Map
  • Figure 25: Global peacefulness has deteriorated in eleven of the last fourteen years
  • Figure 26: A global map of violence and protest
  • Figure 27: War is not over
  • Figure 28: Covid-19 new cases, deaths and vaccinations recorded
  • Figure 29: Average annual wealth growth rate 1995-2021 by wealth group
  • Figure 30: Telcos are aligned with the UN’s SDGs
  • Figure 31: Stage of development of social factors
  • Figure 32: Summary of macro trends
  • Figure 33: Summarising the big drivers of change
  • Figure 34: Percentage of plastic in a country’s waste composition
  • Figure 35: World Air Quality Index
  • Figure 36: International migration growth 1990-2020

Keywords: Brexit, China, climate change, conflict, consequences for telecoms, consumer confidence, cost of living, covid, Decarbonisation, Disruption, economic, edge computing, enterprise, environmental, Government, growing nationalism, inequality, inflation, interest rates, migrations, networking technologies, Networks, operational innovation, PEST, Political, pollution, refugees, regulation, Social, sustainability, Taiwan, telco cloud, Ukraine