​Edge computing market sizing forecast

Demand for edge computing services will grow significantly in the next ten years but not all market players will benefit equally from this new source of revenue. Where they are positioned in the value chain, which region they operate in, which use case they focus on will all be key determinants to success in capturing what STL Partners estimate as a USD500 billion opportunity by 2030.

Edge computing market sizing forecast

STL Partners has published a forecast that estimates the total addressable revenue from edge computing services over the 2020–2030 period and how it breaks down between the various elements of the value chain: hardware, cellular connectivity, application, edge infrastructure (separately for on-prem and network edge), and integration & services. The forecast is the output of a demand model focused on the 20 use cases set to drive most of the demand for edge computing in the current decade.

The forecast is available as part of our Edge Insights Service, an off-the-shelf research service on all things edge. It comprises a PDF report which presents the main findings of the forecast and an Excel dashboard which presents the data, at global, regional and country level. Updates to the model are published twice a year (December and June of each year). To find out more, feel free to click here to arrange a call with our team.

The forecast seeks to answer the following key questions:

  • Which use case will generate the most revenue in the next 10 years?
  • Which vertical will generate the most revenue in the next 10 years?
  • How do the various parts of the value chain compare in terms of revenue opportunity?
  • Since edge services will be launched at different time in different countries, which regions are the most lucrative and when?
  • What fraction of total addressable revenue will actually come from the provision of edge infrastructure, both from on-prem servers or network edge?

Below is a limited version of the forecast, redacted but showcasing the level of granularity which can be inferred from our data.

Edge computing market sizing forecast report

The accompanying report, Edge computing market sizing forecast, identifies some of the key conclusions from the forecast, including where telecoms operators and other edge players should play to maximise the revenue opportunity:

  1. Most of the total addressable revenue will come from the provision of edge-enabled applications – connectivity presents a much smaller revenue opportunity
  2. North America, Europe and East Asia will generate 88% of the revenue opportunity for edge services by 2030 with China and the USA capturing over half of total addressable revenue by this point (52%)
  3. The provision of network infrastructure will represent a small but not negligible fraction of the value chain by end of the decade (USD40 billion) – in the longer term we predict the network edge will be a larger opportunity than on-premise, though this will take some time to mature

Next steps

The edge computing market is an ever-evolving space. This coupled with the parallel changes in the telecoms ecosystem make it an exciting space to watch. STL Partners will continue to update this forecast with five more new use cases at the next publication planned for mid-2022.

Outside of this forecast, STL Partners is adding to its Edge Insights Service, ensuring we publish reports on key topics and incorporate insights through our tools (see an overview of the service below).

Authors

Ahmed Ali, Senior Analyst

Emma Buckland, Senior Analyst

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